Date Received: 20-10-2025 / Date Accepted: 23-04-2026 / Date Published: 27-05-2026
Although agriculture plays an important role in ensuring food security, it remains a significant source of CO2 emissions in Vietnam. In the context of promoting green agriculture with low emissions, this study examines the relationship between CO2 emissions, fertilizer use, and cereal cultivated area over the period 1976-2023, using data from WDI and FAOSTAT. The NARDL model is applied to analyze asymmetric effects in both the short run and the long run. The results show that fertilizer is the most influential factor: an increase in fertilizer use leads to a clear and lasting rise in CO2 emissions, while a reduction only results in a limited decrease. The cultivated area has no effect in the short run, but reducing the area helps lower emissions in the long run. These findings confirm that the relationship between agricultural inputs and CO2 emissions is non-linear and asymmetric over time, implying that policies should be designed based on the direction of change (increase or decrease) and time horizon (short run and long run) to support the development of low-emission green agriculture.
